Model transparency

Methodology

The hype score framework combines deterministic valuation mechanics with benchmarked expectations analysis and guidance-grounding checks.

Pipeline overview

Identify trending tickers from social/news mention activity.
Run reverse-DCF expectations model to solve implied 5-year growth at observed price.
Compute expectations premium = implied growth − historical 3Y revenue CAGR.
Benchmark against S&P 500 and sector distributions to derive percentile/z-score signals.
Map benchmark outputs nonlinearly into a 1–10 hype score with uncertainty uplift.
Ground outputs against management guidance (revenue + EBITDA) and transcript-derived evidence.
Apply optional LLM adjudication only when deterministic diagnostics raise structural flags.

Cost of equity uses CAPM: risk-free rate + beta × equity risk premium.
Cost of debt uses interest burden and debt balances, then tax adjustment.
Capital weights are market-implied where available.
When WACC materially diverges from ~9%, model notes should explain the driver (e.g., high beta).

A high hype score means assumptions are demanding, not necessarily that price must fall.
A low hype score can occur when implied growth is below historical trend or guidance anchors.
Use workbook sensitivities to stress assumptions before making any investment decision.